Category Archives: Infectious Disease

Swine Flu Could Infect 150 million in USA

Swine Flu Could Infect Half of U.S.
Presidential Panel’s Estimate Is First To Gauge Possible Impact of Pandemic

By Rob Stein
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Swine flu could infect half the U.S. population this fall and winter, hospitalizing up to 1.8 million people and causing as many as 90,000 deaths — more than double the number that occur in an average flu season, according to an estimate from a presidential panel released Monday.

The virus could cause symptoms in 60 million to 120 million people, more than half of whom might seek medical attention, the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology estimated in an 86-page report to the White House assessing the government’s response to the first influenza pandemic in 41 years.

Although most of the cases probably would be mild, up to 300,000 people could require intensive care, which could tie up all those beds in some parts of the country at the peak of the outbreak, the council said.

“This is going to be fairly serious,” said Harold E. Varmus of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center in New York, co-chair of the 21-member council. “It’s going to stress every aspect of our health system.”

The estimates mark the first time experts have released specific calculations about the possible U.S. impact of the pandemic. The “plausible scenario” is based on previous pandemics and how the swine flu behaved in the United States this spring and during the Southern Hemisphere’s winter over the past few months, said Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard School of Public Health, who helped prepare the estimate...read more here…

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Learn how vitamin D can help prevent swine flu

Wein Fitseal Mask and Wein Viraseal N99 mask

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Swine Flu Pandemic…

June 11 (Bloomberg) — Swine flu, causing mostly mild disease outbreaks on four continents, prompted the World Health Organization to declare the first influenza pandemic since 1968.

Margaret Chan, the WHO’s director-general, moved the alert to the top of the agency’s six-stage pandemic scale today on evidence the virus is spreading in communities outside the Americas. The new H1N1 flu strain has taken root in Australia, Chile, the U.K. and Spain since its discovery in Mexico and the U.S. in April.

The pandemic declaration confirms the fourth time in the last century a new influenza strain has swept across the globe. It’s the third time since April 27 that Geneva-based WHO has raised the alert level over swine flu, which has turned up in more than 70 nations as far removed as Iceland, New Zealand and the Bahamas. The move doesn’t mean there will be more deaths or severe cases, Chan said.

“We are seeing a moderate pandemic,” Chan told reporters on a conference call before making the announcement. “We are satisfied that this virus is spreading to a number of countries and it is not stoppable.”

Drugmakers will be finishing their production of seasonal influenza vaccine for the Northern Hemisphere winter in coming weeks, Chan said.

“We would advise them, as soon as they finish their seasonal vaccine production, quickly prepare to make commercial- scale pandemic vaccine,” she said.

Response Plans

WHO urged countries not to implement pandemic response plans designed for a more severe threat after government leaders said last month that moving to phase 6 may spur some countries to restrict travel, ban public events and adopt other measures that aren’t needed for mild flu, worsening the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression.

“Some political leaders worry about some unwarranted overreaction and some are also concerned that, because of the mildness of the disease, people will say ‘so what’s the big deal about pandemic?’” she said. “The balance between overreaction or complacency is another issue that’s of great concern.”

U.S. health officials said they won’t be changing their response to the virus based on the new pandemic designation and have already been responding to the outbreak like they would for a pandemic. There have been more than 13,000 confirmed cases in the U.S., which have caused about 1,000 hospitalizations and 27 deaths, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

‘Strong Message’

“For all intensive purposes, the U.S. government has been in phase 6 of the pandemic level for some time,” Thomas Frieden, director of the CDC, said in a conference call today with reporters. “This does send a strong message that the virus is here and likely to stay.”

In the U.S., the virus has been most severe in children, young adults and those with asthma or who are pregnant, Frieden said. The virus has spread the most widely in Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey. About 7 percent of New Yorkers likely had swine flu in May, according to a survey released yesterday by the New York City health department.

The United Nations health agency doesn’t advise border closures or restrictions on travel and trade, Chan said.

WHO is watching for any sign the disease is worsening as the germ circulates during the Southern Hemisphere’s flu season, creating opportunities for its genes to mutate or combine with those of other viruses, including the H5N1 bird flu strain that’s lethal in three of every five reported cases. The new virus has genes from other strains that have sickened humans, pigs and birds.

Biggest Concern

“The tendency to move into complacency is our biggest concern because we need to continue to monitor this virus, follow its track and not allow it to come back in the second wave to give us more trouble,” Chan said…read more here…

Swine Flu Pandemic Declared..

The 1918 Flu killed between 20-100 million people worldwide.  Interestingly, it was a swine flu.   The first people were affected in the spring. The virus was latent during the summer and returned with a vengeance in the   fall.  Are  you and your family prepared for a fall flu epidemic?  I am almost certain that it WILL return. I would recommend that all families who are interested in protecting themselves invest a small amount of money ($30) in purchasing the Wein ViraMask- The only N99 protection self adhesive mask available.  

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WHO: Swine flu pandemic has begun, 1st in 41 years By MARIA CHENG and FRANK JORDANS – 6 hours ago GENEVA (AP) — Swine flu is now formally a pandemic, a declaration by U.N. health officials that will speed vaccine production and spur government spending to combat the first global flu epidemic in 41 years. Thursday’s announcement by the World Health Organization doesn’t mean the virus is any more lethal — only that its spread is considered unstoppable. Since it was first detected in late April in Mexico and the United States, swine flu has reached 74 countries, infecting nearly 29,000 people. Most who catch the bug have only mild symptoms and don’t need medical treatment. WHO chief Dr. Margaret Chan made the long-awaited declaration after the U.N. agency held an emergency meeting with flu experts and said she was moving to phase 6 — the agency’s highest alert level — which means a pandemic is under way. “The world is moving into the early days of its first influenza pandemic in the 21st century,” Chan said in Geneva. Dr. Thomas Frieden, the new head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in Atlanta that he does not expect widespread public anxiety in the United States as a result of the declaration, noting it came nearly two months after the virus was identified. For many weeks, U.S. health officials have been treating it as a pandemic, increasing the availability of anti-viral flu medicines and pouring money into a possible vaccination program. And scientists have grown to understand that the virus is generally not much more severe than the seasonal flu….read more here…

Swine Flu in Japan

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May 19 (Bloomberg) — Dozens of swine flu cases in Japan may prompt the World Health Organization to declare a pandemic, a former WHO adviser said, spurring demand for vaccines to fight the contagion.

Japan reported its first locally-transmitted case on May 16, and the number of people infected with the virus, formally known as A/H1N1, has jumped to 135 from 4 in less than two weeks. Evidence of human-to-human transmission in a region outside North America may prompt the WHO to raise its pandemic alert to the highest level, said Hitoshi Oshitani, the former head of the agency’s Western Pacific region.

“Japan is definitely having human-to-human transmission,” Oshitani said yesterday in a telephone interview. “The WHO will have to take the Japanese cases into consideration when deciding whether to raise the pandemic alert.”

Margaret Chan, the WHO’s director-general, and United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon are scheduled to broker an accord with executives from drugmakers such as Sanofi-Aventis SA and GlaxoSmithKline Plc in Geneva today to ensure developing countries can gain access to pandemic vaccines.

The outbreak worldwide extended to 8,829 infections in 40 nations as health officials from more than 190 countries began a meeting yesterday of the World Health Assembly in Geneva to debate whether swine flu is spreading widely enough to upgrade the threat to level 6, and declare it the first pandemic since 1968…read rest of story…